Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kyler Murray — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.084
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.077
Dropbacks
550
Turnover EPA
-65.0
WPA
+1.37
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 34 | +0.338 | +0.347 | -0.009 | +11.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.23 | +5.1 |
| 2 | MIN | 39 | +0.136 | +0.117 | +0.018 | +5.3 | 2 / 0 | -13.7 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.27 | +14.6 |
| 3 | JAX | 34 | +0.219 | +0.349 | -0.130 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +14.0 |
| 4 | LA | 35 | +0.508 | +0.398 | +0.110 | +17.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.37 | +10.5 |
| 5 | SF | 33 | +0.149 | +0.132 | +0.017 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.04 | +10.8 |
| 6 | CLE | 32 | +0.475 | +0.456 | +0.020 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.18 | +9.5 |
| 7 | HOU | 32 | +0.181 | +0.270 | -0.088 | +5.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.26 | +2.5 |
| 8 | GB | 35 | +0.042 | +0.018 | +0.024 | +1.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.04 | +1.3 |
| 13 | CHI | 16 | +0.502 | +0.478 | +0.024 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.18 | +1.6 |
| 14 | LA | 53 | +0.075 | -0.025 | +0.099 | +4.0 | 2 / 0 | -13.2 | 4 | -3.3 | -0.13 | +0.2 |
| 15 | DET | 44 | -0.482 | -0.327 | -0.155 | -21.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.23 | -11.0 |
| 16 | IND | 43 | -0.081 | -0.088 | +0.007 | -3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -1.4 |
| 17 | DAL | 40 | +0.325 | +0.236 | +0.090 | +13.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.28 | +7.0 |
| 18 | SEA | 44 | -0.107 | -0.081 | -0.026 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.13 | +0.7 |
| 19 | LA | 36 | -0.522 | -0.610 | +0.088 | -18.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.27 | -15.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.