Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kyler Murray — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.048
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.041
Dropbacks
418
Turnover EPA
-25.7
WPA
-0.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 38 | -0.000 | +0.009 | -0.009 | -0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.16 | +1.1 |
| 2 | LV | 51 | -0.234 | -0.154 | -0.080 | -11.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | -5.6 |
| 3 | LA | 60 | -0.076 | -0.081 | +0.005 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.14 | -5.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 34 | -0.049 | -0.045 | -0.004 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.14 | +5.5 |
| 5 | PHI | 41 | +0.220 | +0.168 | +0.052 | +9.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.36 | +1.8 |
| 6 | SEA | 43 | -0.318 | -0.271 | -0.046 | -13.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 6 | -10.6 | -0.32 | +0.6 |
| 7 | NO | 32 | +0.167 | +0.089 | +0.077 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.01 | -1.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 48 | -0.053 | -0.042 | -0.011 | -2.5 | 2 / 0 | -8.9 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.05 | -1.4 |
| 9 | SEA | 40 | -0.234 | -0.191 | -0.043 | -9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.6 | -0.01 | +1.1 |
| 12 | LAC | 30 | +0.282 | +0.256 | +0.027 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.00 | +0.2 |
| 14 | NE | 1 | +0.854 | +0.796 | +0.058 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | +16.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.