Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kyler Murray — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.068
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.057
Dropbacks
289
Turnover EPA
-32.3
WPA
-0.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ATL | 35 | -0.226 | -0.184 | -0.042 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.17 | -8.2 |
| 11 | HOU | 33 | -0.195 | -0.207 | +0.012 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.41 | -0.9 |
| 12 | LA | 50 | -0.313 | -0.285 | -0.028 | -15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.23 | -7.6 |
| 13 | PIT | 25 | +0.039 | +0.046 | -0.007 | +1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.11 | -8.4 |
| 15 | SF | 43 | -0.104 | -0.171 | +0.067 | -4.5 | 2 / 0 | -12.7 | 3 | -2.4 | -0.23 | -1.0 |
| 16 | CHI | 40 | -0.226 | -0.165 | -0.061 | -9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.24 | -5.7 |
| 17 | PHI | 32 | +0.293 | +0.285 | +0.008 | +9.4 | 1 / 0 | -10.4 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.55 | +11.0 |
| 18 | SEA | 31 | +0.435 | +0.474 | -0.039 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.58 | +4.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.