Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kyler Murray — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.024
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.032
Dropbacks
177
Turnover EPA
-9.2
WPA
+0.31
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 34 | +0.071 | +0.045 | +0.026 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | +0.24 | -1.7 |
| 2 | CAR | 26 | +0.157 | +0.236 | -0.079 | +4.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.06 | +0.8 |
| 3 | SF | 36 | -0.057 | -0.017 | -0.039 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.22 | -2.6 |
| 4 | SEA | 47 | +0.001 | -0.070 | +0.072 | +0.1 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 6 | -7.9 | +0.08 | -5.0 |
| 5 | TEN | 34 | -0.007 | +0.058 | -0.066 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.15 | +8.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.