Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Easton Stick — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.166
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.172
Dropbacks
187
Turnover EPA
-38.3
WPA
-1.22
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DEN | 26 | -0.294 | -0.259 | -0.035 | -7.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 2 | -6.4 | -0.08 | -14.6 |
| 15 | LV | 35 | -0.330 | -0.295 | -0.035 | -11.5 | 1 / 2 | -22.4 | 3 | -17.7 | -0.13 | +2.0 |
| 16 | BUF | 38 | +0.005 | -0.029 | +0.034 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.35 | +1.1 |
| 17 | DEN | 38 | +0.011 | +0.032 | -0.021 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.11 | -3.3 |
| 18 | KC | 50 | -0.248 | -0.304 | +0.055 | -12.4 | 0 / 1 | -11.6 | 3 | -14.4 | -0.55 | -9.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.