Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Gardner Minshew — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.007
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.013
Dropbacks
527
Turnover EPA
-62.9
WPA
+0.67
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 2 | -2.388 | -2.377 | -0.011 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -64.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 23 | +0.408 | +0.387 | +0.021 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +13.9 |
| 3 | BAL | 49 | -0.100 | -0.172 | +0.072 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.7 | -0.56 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TEN | 14 | +0.494 | +0.529 | -0.035 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | +11.9 |
| 6 | JAX | 58 | -0.212 | -0.199 | -0.013 | -12.3 | 3 / 1 | -19.2 | 3 | -8.4 | -0.17 | -4.1 |
| 7 | CLE | 27 | +0.134 | +0.027 | +0.107 | +3.6 | 1 / 3 | -19.4 | 4 | -15.3 | +0.13 | +0.4 |
| 8 | NO | 43 | +0.007 | -0.047 | +0.054 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.19 | -10.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 27 | -0.040 | -0.039 | -0.001 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.00 | +1.6 |
| 10 | NE | 28 | +0.123 | +0.086 | +0.037 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | +2.3 |
| 12 | TB | 43 | -0.030 | -0.002 | -0.027 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.15 | -12.5 |
| 13 | TEN | 46 | +0.003 | +0.044 | -0.042 | +0.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.5 | 3 | -7.7 | +0.32 | -1.5 |
| 14 | CIN | 43 | +0.001 | +0.014 | -0.013 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.02 | -2.8 |
| 15 | PIT | 31 | -0.034 | -0.022 | -0.012 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.17 | -2.8 |
| 16 | ATL | 43 | -0.231 | -0.188 | -0.043 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 6 | -8.5 | -0.10 | -9.4 |
| 17 | LV | 24 | +0.461 | +0.479 | -0.018 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.27 | +4.8 |
| 18 | HOU | 26 | -0.123 | -0.135 | +0.012 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.17 | -11.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.