Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Gardner Minshew — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.124
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.137
Dropbacks
333
Turnover EPA
-69.6
WPA
-1.33
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 37 | -0.016 | -0.034 | +0.018 | -0.6 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 4 | -11.4 | +0.10 | +1.0 |
| 2 | BAL | 43 | +0.034 | -0.056 | +0.090 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 5 | -8.8 | -0.13 | +15.9 |
| 3 | CAR | 31 | -0.194 | -0.139 | -0.056 | -6.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.11 | -6.5 |
| 4 | CLE | 26 | -0.098 | -0.145 | +0.047 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.23 | -13.7 |
| 5 | DEN | 19 | -0.537 | -0.545 | +0.008 | -10.2 | 2 / 0 | -15.1 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.22 | +4.5 |
| 7 | LA | 36 | -0.665 | -0.643 | -0.022 | -23.9 | 3 / 1 | -18.9 | 2 | -9.6 | -0.57 | -14.3 |
| 8 | KC | 33 | +0.227 | +0.207 | +0.020 | +7.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 5 | -11.9 | +0.02 | +17.1 |
| 9 | CIN | 18 | +0.028 | +0.053 | -0.025 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | +1.0 |
| 11 | MIA | 46 | +0.116 | +0.107 | +0.009 | +5.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.10 | +2.0 |
| 12 | DEN | 44 | -0.290 | -0.299 | +0.009 | -12.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 3 | -2.9 | -0.34 | -5.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.