Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Drew Lock — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.104
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.077
Dropbacks
119
Turnover EPA
-8.2
WPA
-0.17
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BAL | 24 | -0.413 | -0.393 | -0.020 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.18 | -8.1 |
| 12 | LAC | 7 | -0.744 | -0.740 | -0.003 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | +1.1 | -0.10 | -4.9 |
| 15 | CIN | 13 | +0.181 | +0.201 | -0.020 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.08 | -6.3 |
| 16 | LV | 24 | -0.163 | -0.094 | -0.068 | -3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.11 | +2.0 |
| 17 | LAC | 26 | +0.075 | +0.086 | -0.011 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.2 | -0.03 | +2.7 |
| 18 | KC | 25 | +0.093 | +0.113 | -0.019 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.17 | -8.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.