Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.010
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.029
Dropbacks
383
Turnover EPA
-37.3
WPA
+0.68
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 38 | -0.031 | -0.037 | +0.006 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.17 | -3.5 |
| 2 | WAS | 36 | +0.072 | +0.078 | -0.006 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.8 | +0.16 | +4.4 |
| 3 | ATL | 37 | +0.135 | +0.206 | -0.071 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.02 | +0.3 |
| 4 | NO | 40 | +0.520 | +0.409 | +0.111 | +20.8 | 1 / 0 | -0.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.83 | +8.7 |
| 5 | DAL | 13 | +0.150 | +0.068 | +0.082 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | -17.9 |
| 6 | LA | 56 | -0.168 | -0.263 | +0.095 | -9.4 | 3 / 1 | -16.6 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.21 | -9.6 |
| 7 | CAR | 35 | -0.059 | -0.057 | -0.002 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.06 | +1.1 |
| 8 | KC | 35 | -0.077 | -0.050 | -0.027 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.16 | -1.7 |
| 9 | LV | 22 | -0.120 | -0.054 | -0.066 | -2.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 2 | -7.0 | -0.01 | +12.8 |
| 11 | TB | 40 | -0.482 | -0.534 | +0.052 | -19.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 2 | -5.0 | -0.10 | -1.7 |
| 12 | PHI | 31 | +0.096 | +0.115 | -0.019 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -3.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.