Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.035
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.035
Dropbacks
584
Turnover EPA
-33.4
WPA
+0.86
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 27 | -0.259 | -0.253 | -0.006 | -7.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.4 | 5 | -10.9 | -0.02 | +13.4 |
| 2 | CAR | 37 | -0.076 | -0.072 | -0.004 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.01 | -1.6 |
| 3 | DAL | 42 | -0.192 | -0.278 | +0.086 | -8.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 5 | -6.1 | -0.42 | -6.6 |
| 4 | CHI | 14 | -0.192 | -0.140 | -0.052 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.03 | -1.2 |
| 5 | GB | 28 | +0.510 | +0.478 | +0.032 | +14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.46 | +11.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 31 | +0.298 | +0.329 | -0.030 | +9.2 | 0 / 1 | -0.3 | 4 | -4.3 | +0.33 | +9.9 |
| 7 | JAX | 31 | +0.003 | +0.060 | -0.057 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.05 | -2.7 |
| 8 | SEA | 36 | -0.038 | +0.003 | -0.041 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -2.9 | +0.07 | -12.8 |
| 10 | HOU | 20 | +0.588 | +0.594 | -0.006 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.30 | +3.8 |
| 11 | DET | 47 | -0.044 | +0.054 | -0.097 | -2.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.13 | +1.2 |
| 12 | DAL | 35 | -0.037 | -0.123 | +0.087 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | WAS | 33 | -0.076 | -0.069 | -0.007 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.1 | +0.01 | +15.7 |
| 14 | PHI | 31 | -0.116 | -0.164 | +0.047 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.8 | -0.12 | -1.0 |
| 15 | WAS | 32 | +0.029 | +0.036 | -0.006 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -2.8 |
| 16 | MIN | 46 | +0.067 | +0.074 | -0.007 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.01 | +2.7 |
| 17 | IND | 24 | +0.494 | +0.492 | +0.002 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +12.2 |
| 19 | MIN | 38 | +0.359 | +0.358 | +0.001 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.49 | -1.3 |
| 20 | PHI | 32 | -0.415 | -0.453 | +0.038 | -13.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 5 | -9.2 | -0.13 | -10.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.