Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.344
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.321
Dropbacks
191
Turnover EPA
-43.5
WPA
-0.59
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 35 | -0.629 | -0.649 | +0.020 | -22.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 7 | -9.0 | -0.29 | -13.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 40 | +0.124 | +0.205 | -0.081 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 3 | -1.9 | +0.44 | +6.1 |
| 3 | SF | 35 | -0.198 | -0.261 | +0.063 | -6.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.11 | +0.5 |
| 4 | SEA | 44 | -0.724 | -0.659 | -0.065 | -31.9 | 2 / 1 | -23.7 | 10 | -19.4 | -0.45 | +8.2 |
| 5 | MIA | 26 | -0.203 | -0.177 | -0.026 | -5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -7.3 | -0.07 | +6.6 |
| 9 | LV | 11 | -0.417 | -0.377 | -0.041 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.11 | -23.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.