Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.105
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.098
Dropbacks
371
Turnover EPA
-40.7
WPA
-0.62
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 47 | -0.447 | -0.481 | +0.033 | -21.0 | 2 / 0 | -11.7 | 5 | -5.4 | -0.27 | -10.7 |
| 2 | WAS | 31 | +0.177 | +0.220 | -0.043 | +5.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.36 | -3.1 |
| 3 | CLE | 36 | +0.329 | +0.274 | +0.056 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.25 | +7.8 |
| 4 | DAL | 41 | +0.086 | +0.108 | -0.023 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.06 | +10.3 |
| 5 | SEA | 37 | +0.192 | +0.205 | -0.013 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.37 | +4.8 |
| 6 | CIN | 41 | -0.360 | -0.333 | -0.026 | -14.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.34 | -8.3 |
| 7 | PHI | 27 | -0.537 | -0.564 | +0.027 | -14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -12.9 | -0.38 | +4.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 43 | -0.014 | -0.028 | +0.014 | -0.6 | 1 / 1 | -6.5 | 4 | -9.3 | -0.02 | +3.3 |
| 9 | WAS | 30 | -0.114 | -0.066 | -0.048 | -3.4 | 0 / 1 | -8.1 | 2 | -9.8 | -0.18 | +9.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 38 | -0.336 | -0.273 | -0.063 | -12.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.47 | +0.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.