Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.165
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.158
Dropbacks
409
Turnover EPA
-50.5
WPA
+1.35
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 30 | +0.396 | +0.433 | -0.037 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.25 | +5.4 |
| 2 | DEN | 35 | +0.420 | +0.313 | +0.107 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.44 | +5.0 |
| 3 | TEN | 25 | +0.376 | +0.433 | -0.057 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +1.7 |
| 4 | LA | 35 | +0.129 | +0.118 | +0.010 | +4.5 | 2 / 0 | -6.4 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.09 | +7.6 |
| 5 | LV | 32 | +0.359 | +0.386 | -0.028 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -1.2 |
| 6 | ARI | 31 | +0.021 | +0.092 | -0.070 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.36 | +3.7 |
| 7 | LAC | 35 | +0.494 | +0.410 | +0.084 | +17.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.27 | +5.2 |
| 8 | TEN | 32 | +0.372 | +0.433 | -0.061 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.09 | +13.4 |
| 9 | PIT | 54 | -0.310 | -0.302 | -0.009 | -16.8 | 3 / 2 | -26.8 | 5 | -15.3 | -0.40 | -1.6 |
| 10 | ATL | 34 | -0.063 | -0.062 | -0.000 | -2.1 | 1 / 1 | -5.8 | 7 | -13.5 | -0.14 | +3.1 |
| 12 | KC | 31 | +0.061 | +0.046 | +0.015 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.05 | -5.1 |
| 13 | HOU | 28 | +0.134 | +0.022 | +0.112 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.06 | -8.8 |
| 14 | JAX | 7 | -0.164 | -0.178 | +0.015 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | +5.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.