Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyler Huntley — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.116
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.148
Dropbacks
205
Turnover EPA
-30.4
WPA
-1.65
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CIN | 11 | -0.404 | -0.384 | -0.020 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -21.1 |
| 11 | CHI | 42 | -0.156 | -0.165 | +0.010 | -6.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 6 | -10.0 | +0.11 | -0.8 |
| 14 | CLE | 41 | -0.100 | -0.107 | +0.007 | -4.1 | 0 / 2 | -13.6 | 3 | -14.5 | -0.43 | +8.7 |
| 15 | GB | 42 | +0.119 | +0.092 | +0.028 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.10 | +3.4 |
| 17 | LA | 35 | -0.014 | -0.111 | +0.097 | -0.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 5 | -5.0 | -0.54 | +0.7 |
| 18 | PIT | 34 | -0.388 | -0.432 | +0.044 | -13.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.68 | -12.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.