Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyler Huntley — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.021
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.021
Dropbacks
148
Turnover EPA
-14.7
WPA
-0.10
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | DEN | 33 | +0.003 | -0.020 | +0.023 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.07 | +16.3 |
| 14 | PIT | 13 | +0.107 | +0.134 | -0.027 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.02 | +1.3 |
| 15 | CLE | 33 | -0.324 | -0.354 | +0.030 | -10.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.36 | -9.0 |
| 16 | ATL | 17 | -0.124 | -0.041 | -0.083 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | -1.1 |
| 17 | PIT | 21 | +0.199 | +0.223 | -0.024 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.07 | +4.4 |
| 19 | CIN | 31 | +0.129 | +0.110 | +0.019 | +4.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.09 | -4.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.