Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyler Huntley — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.073
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.093
Dropbacks
41
Turnover EPA
+0.0
WPA
-0.17
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DET | 1 | -0.972 | -0.928 | -0.044 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -37.2 |
| 9 | SEA | 7 | +0.690 | +0.740 | -0.050 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +10.9 |
| 17 | MIA | 1 | +4.231 | +4.226 | +0.005 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +62.0 |
| 18 | PIT | 32 | -0.160 | -0.146 | -0.014 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -13.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.