Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tua Tagovailoa — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.031
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.052
Dropbacks
409
Turnover EPA
-51.2
WPA
+1.94
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 29 | +0.087 | +0.046 | +0.040 | +2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.11 | -4.6 |
| 2 | BUF | 6 | -1.205 | -1.267 | +0.062 | -7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.14 | -38.1 |
| 6 | JAX | 46 | +0.059 | +0.190 | -0.131 | +2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +5.5 |
| 7 | ATL | 41 | +0.066 | +0.137 | -0.071 | +2.7 | 2 / 0 | -13.3 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.32 | +12.4 |
| 8 | BUF | 42 | +0.034 | -0.038 | +0.072 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.08 | -9.3 |
| 10 | BAL | 15 | +0.139 | +0.151 | -0.012 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.01 | +4.8 |
| 11 | NYJ | 33 | +0.397 | +0.501 | -0.104 | +13.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.76 | +12.4 |
| 12 | CAR | 33 | +0.198 | +0.194 | +0.004 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.10 | +13.8 |
| 13 | NYG | 43 | +0.092 | +0.096 | -0.005 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.25 | +4.3 |
| 15 | NYJ | 28 | -0.178 | -0.063 | -0.115 | -5.0 | 2 / 0 | -12.6 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.07 | +1.6 |
| 16 | NO | 28 | +0.279 | +0.175 | +0.103 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.23 | +3.0 |
| 17 | TEN | 42 | -0.387 | -0.359 | -0.028 | -16.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 4 | -10.2 | -0.23 | -18.3 |
| 18 | NE | 23 | -0.077 | -0.120 | +0.042 | -1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | +1.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.