Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tua Tagovailoa — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.204
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.203
Dropbacks
421
Turnover EPA
-42.5
WPA
+2.23
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 40 | +0.044 | +0.108 | -0.064 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.09 | -7.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 26 | -0.433 | -0.410 | -0.023 | -11.3 | 3 / 0 | -15.7 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.19 | +3.3 |
| 8 | ARI | 39 | +0.155 | +0.224 | -0.069 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.25 | +3.9 |
| 9 | BUF | 29 | +0.606 | +0.605 | +0.001 | +17.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.45 | +21.3 |
| 10 | LA | 31 | -0.060 | -0.049 | -0.010 | -1.8 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 3 | -8.3 | +0.06 | -3.3 |
| 11 | LV | 37 | +0.691 | +0.663 | +0.027 | +25.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.55 | +10.6 |
| 12 | NE | 42 | +0.285 | +0.311 | -0.026 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.21 | +3.4 |
| 13 | GB | 53 | +0.260 | +0.225 | +0.035 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.4 | -0.01 | +8.4 |
| 14 | NYJ | 47 | +0.490 | +0.444 | +0.046 | +23.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +1.02 | +3.3 |
| 15 | HOU | 43 | -0.174 | -0.206 | +0.032 | -7.5 | 3 / 1 | -18.2 | 3 | -8.1 | -0.35 | -0.8 |
| 16 | SF | 34 | +0.193 | +0.166 | +0.027 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +0.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.