Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jordan Love — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.162
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.168
Dropbacks
665
Turnover EPA
-53.4
WPA
+2.01
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 28 | +0.593 | +0.636 | -0.042 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.38 | -5.5 |
| 2 | ATL | 26 | +0.068 | +0.101 | -0.033 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.16 | -11.9 |
| 3 | NO | 46 | +0.013 | -0.042 | +0.055 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.14 | -7.6 |
| 4 | DET | 42 | -0.344 | -0.277 | -0.067 | -14.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 5 | -6.1 | -0.22 | +3.4 |
| 5 | LV | 32 | -0.500 | -0.461 | -0.039 | -16.0 | 3 / 0 | -13.6 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.55 | -16.0 |
| 7 | DEN | 31 | +0.230 | +0.244 | -0.014 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.24 | +3.9 |
| 8 | MIN | 45 | -0.197 | -0.176 | -0.021 | -8.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.19 | -4.0 |
| 9 | LA | 29 | +0.263 | +0.276 | -0.013 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.02 | +11.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 40 | +0.126 | +0.133 | -0.007 | +5.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.22 | -4.2 |
| 11 | LAC | 43 | +0.243 | +0.250 | -0.007 | +10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.55 | +3.7 |
| 12 | DET | 32 | +0.346 | +0.399 | -0.053 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.46 | +5.4 |
| 13 | KC | 38 | +0.474 | +0.405 | +0.069 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | +0.40 | +5.6 |
| 14 | NYG | 41 | -0.008 | -0.005 | -0.002 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.23 | +1.1 |
| 15 | TB | 41 | +0.070 | +0.096 | -0.026 | +2.9 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 2 | -5.1 | +0.10 | +11.5 |
| 16 | CAR | 29 | +0.397 | +0.389 | +0.008 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.52 | -0.4 |
| 17 | MIN | 33 | +0.421 | +0.425 | -0.003 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +6.7 |
| 18 | CHI | 33 | +0.409 | +0.457 | -0.048 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.43 | +15.5 |
| 19 | DAL | 21 | +1.199 | +1.140 | +0.059 | +25.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +13.1 |
| 20 | SF | 35 | +0.066 | -0.004 | +0.069 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.19 | -1.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.