Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jordan Love — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.253
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.253
Dropbacks
508
Turnover EPA
-32.5
WPA
+4.56
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 22 | +0.492 | +0.458 | +0.035 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +13.1 |
| 2 | WAS | 33 | +0.124 | +0.202 | -0.078 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.25 | +10.4 |
| 3 | CLE | 30 | +0.031 | -0.031 | +0.062 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 5 | -9.1 | -0.06 | -2.7 |
| 4 | DAL | 44 | +0.385 | +0.488 | -0.103 | +16.9 | 0 / 1 | -2.8 | 1 | -2.8 | +1.21 | +15.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 27 | +0.216 | +0.272 | -0.057 | +5.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.19 | +6.6 |
| 7 | ARI | 30 | +0.134 | +0.202 | -0.068 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.32 | -3.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 38 | +0.601 | +0.588 | +0.013 | +22.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.70 | +13.5 |
| 9 | CAR | 38 | +0.074 | +0.155 | -0.081 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.34 | +9.1 |
| 10 | PHI | 38 | -0.130 | -0.212 | +0.082 | -5.0 | 0 / 1 | -3.5 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.41 | -6.5 |
| 11 | NYG | 27 | +0.346 | +0.386 | -0.040 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.7 | +0.56 | -1.8 |
| 12 | MIN | 22 | +0.356 | +0.250 | +0.107 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.10 | +4.4 |
| 13 | DET | 30 | +0.581 | +0.545 | +0.036 | +17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 26 | +0.314 | +0.309 | +0.006 | +8.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.16 | +12.0 |
| 15 | DEN | 43 | +0.090 | -0.012 | +0.103 | +3.9 | 2 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.16 | +6.8 |
| 16 | CHI | 13 | +0.015 | +0.007 | +0.007 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -2.2 |
| 19 | CHI | 47 | +0.390 | +0.383 | +0.007 | +18.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.37 | +2.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.