Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jordan Love — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.114
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.121
Dropbacks
286
Turnover EPA
-25.6
WPA
+0.59
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 46 | +0.080 | -0.059 | +0.139 | +3.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.5 | 4 | -9.4 | +0.11 | -9.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 32 | -0.221 | -0.099 | -0.122 | -7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -1.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| 3 | ATL | 54 | +0.089 | +0.066 | +0.023 | +4.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.09 | -8.5 |
| 4 | TB | 30 | +0.252 | +0.230 | +0.022 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.3 |
| 5 | CHI | 34 | +0.519 | +0.497 | +0.022 | +17.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | +0.16 | +16.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 44 | -0.002 | +0.138 | -0.140 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.14 | -5.2 |
| 7 | DET | 46 | +0.129 | +0.151 | -0.021 | +5.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.11 | -0.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.