Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Herbert — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.063
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.057
Dropbacks
486
Turnover EPA
-26.7
WPA
+1.21
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 36 | -0.060 | -0.034 | -0.026 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.8 | -0.10 | +2.6 |
| 2 | TEN | 45 | +0.193 | +0.229 | -0.036 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | +0.12 | +7.7 |
| 3 | MIN | 48 | +0.446 | +0.448 | -0.002 | +21.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.97 | +14.7 |
| 4 | LV | 26 | -0.170 | -0.141 | -0.028 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.01 | -7.3 |
| 6 | DAL | 38 | +0.026 | -0.005 | +0.031 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.04 | -6.1 |
| 7 | KC | 35 | +0.075 | +0.015 | +0.060 | +2.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 5 | -8.5 | +0.02 | -3.8 |
| 8 | CHI | 40 | +0.381 | +0.427 | -0.046 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +6.9 |
| 9 | NYJ | 35 | -0.107 | -0.189 | +0.082 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.5 | -0.05 | -10.3 |
| 10 | DET | 40 | +0.313 | +0.365 | -0.051 | +12.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.87 | -2.2 |
| 11 | GB | 38 | +0.129 | +0.133 | -0.004 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.17 | -3.7 |
| 12 | BAL | 47 | -0.183 | -0.253 | +0.070 | -8.6 | 1 / 1 | -4.6 | 3 | -7.0 | -0.64 | -2.1 |
| 13 | NE | 37 | +0.090 | +0.054 | +0.036 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -4.2 |
| 14 | DEN | 21 | -0.966 | -0.931 | -0.035 | -20.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 4 | -8.5 | -0.47 | -12.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.