Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Herbert — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.091
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.086
Dropbacks
581
Turnover EPA
-39.8
WPA
+1.54
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 27 | -0.175 | -0.181 | +0.006 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.15 | -0.6 |
| 2 | CAR | 21 | +0.013 | +0.068 | -0.055 | +0.3 | 1 / 1 | -9.0 | 1 | -4.5 | +0.03 | +7.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 20 | +0.091 | +0.078 | +0.013 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.11 | +3.4 |
| 4 | KC | 29 | -0.057 | -0.071 | +0.013 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.05 | -6.5 |
| 6 | DEN | 37 | +0.239 | +0.219 | +0.020 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.20 | +1.4 |
| 7 | ARI | 41 | +0.248 | +0.316 | -0.068 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.26 | +4.8 |
| 8 | NO | 35 | +0.097 | +0.061 | +0.035 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.8 | -0.04 | -3.1 |
| 9 | CLE | 33 | +0.091 | +0.040 | +0.051 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.0 | +0.17 | +8.3 |
| 10 | TEN | 18 | +0.522 | +0.537 | -0.015 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +8.6 |
| 11 | CIN | 37 | +0.044 | +0.062 | -0.018 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.13 | -11.7 |
| 12 | BAL | 40 | +0.045 | -0.046 | +0.091 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.13 | -8.0 |
| 13 | ATL | 29 | -0.218 | -0.179 | -0.039 | -6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.7 | -0.23 | +1.2 |
| 14 | KC | 33 | +0.266 | +0.247 | +0.019 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.20 | +8.5 |
| 15 | TB | 36 | -0.356 | -0.310 | -0.045 | -12.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.08 | -0.8 |
| 16 | DEN | 34 | +0.388 | +0.362 | +0.026 | +13.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.48 | +7.4 |
| 17 | NE | 38 | +0.495 | +0.517 | -0.022 | +18.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | +7.6 |
| 18 | LV | 37 | +0.523 | +0.498 | +0.025 | +19.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.6 | +0.33 | +10.0 |
| 19 | HOU | 36 | -0.619 | -0.640 | +0.022 | -22.3 | 4 / 0 | -23.5 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.39 | -20.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.