Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Herbert — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.008
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.005
Dropbacks
603
Turnover EPA
-77.9
WPA
-0.18
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 37 | +0.498 | +0.475 | +0.024 | +18.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.51 | +5.8 |
| 2 | LV | 29 | +0.326 | +0.351 | -0.025 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.23 | +0.3 |
| 3 | DEN | 52 | +0.053 | -0.046 | +0.099 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 5 | -9.7 | +0.20 | -4.2 |
| 4 | NYG | 43 | -0.551 | -0.491 | -0.060 | -23.7 | 2 / 0 | -15.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.76 | -5.7 |
| 5 | WAS | 33 | -0.273 | -0.186 | -0.087 | -9.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.26 | +3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 39 | +0.286 | +0.324 | -0.039 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | +0.57 | +8.8 |
| 7 | IND | 58 | +0.076 | +0.100 | -0.025 | +4.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.12 | +2.8 |
| 8 | MIN | 27 | +0.541 | +0.430 | +0.111 | +14.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.21 | +9.1 |
| 9 | TEN | 35 | -0.013 | +0.052 | -0.065 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 6 | -7.6 | +0.01 | +6.5 |
| 10 | PIT | 38 | -0.180 | -0.175 | -0.004 | -6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.7 | -0.17 | -14.1 |
| 11 | JAX | 20 | -0.711 | -0.712 | +0.001 | -14.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.25 | -8.2 |
| 13 | LV | 23 | +0.290 | +0.318 | -0.028 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.05 | +10.8 |
| 14 | PHI | 33 | -0.394 | -0.472 | +0.079 | -13.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.0 | 7 | -12.5 | -0.64 | -15.6 |
| 15 | KC | 33 | +0.026 | +0.013 | +0.012 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -5.5 | +0.00 | +5.9 |
| 16 | DAL | 29 | +0.722 | +0.819 | -0.097 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.70 | +18.8 |
| 17 | HOU | 37 | -0.132 | -0.240 | +0.108 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 5 | -9.2 | -0.20 | +1.2 |
| 19 | NE | 37 | -0.333 | -0.359 | +0.026 | -12.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 6 | -10.8 | -0.27 | -2.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.