Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jalen Hurts — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.034
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.028
Dropbacks
505
Turnover EPA
-53.2
WPA
-0.25
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 35 | +0.292 | +0.357 | -0.065 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.20 | +11.6 |
| 2 | SF | 25 | +0.044 | +0.027 | +0.017 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.8 | -0.02 | -5.6 |
| 3 | DAL | 41 | -0.074 | -0.152 | +0.078 | -3.0 | 2 / 0 | -12.7 | 2 | -4.7 | -0.23 | -3.8 |
| 4 | KC | 51 | +0.250 | +0.271 | -0.021 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.39 | +8.7 |
| 5 | CAR | 40 | -0.244 | -0.237 | -0.007 | -9.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.24 | -4.9 |
| 6 | TB | 29 | -0.163 | -0.227 | +0.063 | -4.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 2 | -1.3 | -0.08 | -11.0 |
| 7 | LV | 37 | +0.052 | +0.112 | -0.061 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.02 | -7.2 |
| 8 | DET | 14 | +0.016 | +0.153 | -0.137 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -1.6 |
| 9 | LAC | 18 | +0.315 | +0.312 | +0.003 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.23 | +9.6 |
| 10 | DEN | 25 | +0.216 | +0.203 | +0.014 | +5.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.16 | +12.9 |
| 11 | NO | 27 | +0.123 | +0.020 | +0.103 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.04 | -5.5 |
| 12 | NYG | 31 | -0.581 | -0.561 | -0.020 | -18.0 | 3 / 0 | -11.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.69 | -14.3 |
| 15 | WAS | 29 | +0.205 | +0.207 | -0.003 | +5.9 | 1 / 1 | -11.9 | 3 | -9.5 | +0.15 | +11.3 |
| 16 | NYG | 30 | +0.038 | +0.043 | -0.006 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.07 | -3.9 |
| 17 | WAS | 27 | +0.281 | +0.280 | +0.002 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.02 | +6.7 |
| 19 | TB | 46 | -0.058 | -0.120 | +0.062 | -2.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.05 | -7.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.