Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jalen Hurts — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.144
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.152
Dropbacks
590
Turnover EPA
-41.2
WPA
+1.56
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 33 | +0.018 | +0.108 | -0.091 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.14 | -10.0 |
| 2 | MIN | 34 | +0.347 | +0.349 | -0.002 | +11.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.26 | +15.0 |
| 3 | WAS | 38 | +0.406 | +0.405 | +0.001 | +15.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.25 | +4.1 |
| 4 | JAX | 28 | -0.499 | -0.432 | -0.067 | -14.0 | 1 / 0 | -8.8 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.29 | -2.8 |
| 5 | ARI | 38 | +0.088 | +0.099 | -0.010 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.22 | +1.1 |
| 6 | DAL | 29 | +0.205 | +0.112 | +0.093 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.1 | +0.10 | -5.3 |
| 8 | PIT | 31 | +0.488 | +0.504 | -0.016 | +15.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.8 | +0.25 | +2.4 |
| 9 | HOU | 31 | +0.214 | +0.228 | -0.014 | +6.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 4 | -11.1 | +0.28 | +15.4 |
| 10 | WAS | 27 | +0.239 | +0.242 | -0.003 | +6.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.27 | -0.8 |
| 11 | IND | 28 | -0.209 | -0.194 | -0.015 | -5.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 3 | -11.0 | -0.39 | +9.2 |
| 12 | GB | 30 | +0.082 | +0.055 | +0.027 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.16 | -2.8 |
| 13 | TEN | 41 | +0.458 | +0.448 | +0.010 | +18.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.7 | +0.45 | +14.1 |
| 14 | NYG | 35 | +0.155 | +0.157 | -0.002 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.5 | +0.15 | +3.9 |
| 15 | CHI | 38 | -0.035 | +0.021 | -0.056 | -1.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.06 | -1.3 |
| 18 | NYG | 38 | -0.129 | -0.120 | -0.009 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.07 | -4.5 |
| 20 | NYG | 25 | +0.235 | +0.236 | -0.001 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.21 | -1.4 |
| 21 | SF | 26 | +0.011 | -0.025 | +0.037 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.03 | -2.6 |
| 22 | KC | 40 | +0.320 | +0.322 | -0.002 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.28 | +12.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.