Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jalen Hurts — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.100
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.097
Dropbacks
613
Turnover EPA
-68.6
WPA
+0.75
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 36 | -0.102 | -0.135 | +0.033 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | -0.28 | +8.1 |
| 2 | MIN | 27 | +0.027 | +0.041 | -0.014 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 4 | -4.8 | -0.08 | +13.3 |
| 3 | TB | 38 | +0.020 | +0.046 | -0.026 | +0.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.03 | +1.7 |
| 4 | WAS | 40 | +0.204 | +0.264 | -0.060 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.0 | +0.43 | +10.5 |
| 5 | LA | 39 | +0.186 | +0.200 | -0.014 | +7.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.27 | +3.9 |
| 6 | NYJ | 47 | -0.056 | -0.138 | +0.083 | -2.6 | 3 / 0 | -14.8 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.71 | -3.0 |
| 7 | MIA | 34 | +0.041 | +0.064 | -0.023 | +1.4 | 1 / 1 | -12.9 | 3 | -6.6 | +0.04 | +10.2 |
| 8 | WAS | 40 | +0.539 | +0.590 | -0.051 | +21.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.75 | +15.3 |
| 9 | DAL | 26 | +0.363 | +0.324 | +0.039 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.26 | +14.8 |
| 11 | KC | 27 | -0.071 | -0.126 | +0.056 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 5 | -5.5 | +0.05 | -4.7 |
| 12 | BUF | 33 | +0.039 | +0.003 | +0.037 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.20 | -4.9 |
| 13 | SF | 49 | +0.262 | +0.190 | +0.072 | +12.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.10 | +3.6 |
| 14 | DAL | 28 | +0.128 | +0.091 | +0.037 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.07 | -0.8 |
| 15 | SEA | 31 | +0.007 | +0.055 | -0.048 | +0.2 | 2 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.11 | -8.0 |
| 16 | NYG | 39 | +0.191 | +0.189 | +0.002 | +7.5 | 1 / 0 | -10.2 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.13 | -3.8 |
| 17 | ARI | 23 | +0.428 | +0.502 | -0.074 | +9.8 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +17.7 |
| 18 | NYG | 18 | -0.615 | -0.604 | -0.011 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.41 | -8.0 |
| 19 | TB | 38 | -0.111 | -0.081 | -0.030 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.04 | +9.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.