Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jalen Hurts — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.054
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.060
Dropbacks
522
Turnover EPA
-39.1
WPA
-0.74
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 24 | -0.044 | +0.066 | -0.110 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.07 | +21.8 |
| 2 | KC | 24 | -0.195 | -0.202 | +0.008 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.13 | +4.4 |
| 3 | LA | 37 | +0.001 | -0.006 | +0.007 | +0.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 4 | -10.6 | +0.01 | +6.0 |
| 4 | TB | 26 | -0.090 | -0.050 | -0.041 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.04 | -5.0 |
| 5 | DEN | 44 | +0.112 | +0.011 | +0.101 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.9 | -0.19 | -2.3 |
| 6 | NYG | 36 | +0.011 | +0.060 | -0.049 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.8 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.09 | +9.2 |
| 7 | MIN | 26 | +0.845 | +0.727 | +0.118 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.6 | +0.53 | +17.9 |
| 8 | NYG | 24 | +0.295 | +0.334 | -0.039 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.9 | +0.03 | +9.8 |
| 10 | GB | 26 | +0.339 | +0.327 | +0.012 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -0.8 |
| 11 | DET | 29 | -0.273 | -0.289 | +0.016 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.21 | -9.8 |
| 12 | DAL | 40 | +0.094 | +0.205 | -0.111 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.09 | +6.5 |
| 13 | CHI | 33 | +0.076 | +0.076 | +0.000 | +2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +0.6 |
| 14 | LAC | 41 | -0.331 | -0.396 | +0.065 | -13.6 | 4 / 0 | -21.8 | 1 | -2.6 | -1.04 | -10.7 |
| 15 | LV | 16 | +0.786 | +0.797 | -0.011 | +12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.11 | +14.6 |
| 16 | WAS | 32 | +0.156 | +0.234 | -0.078 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.33 | +7.5 |
| 17 | BUF | 28 | -0.153 | -0.179 | +0.026 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.02 | -2.1 |
| 19 | SF | 36 | -0.133 | -0.090 | -0.042 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.48 | -7.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.