Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Burrow — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.144
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.136
Dropbacks
770
Turnover EPA
-76.3
WPA
+2.65
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 61 | -0.297 | -0.264 | -0.033 | -18.1 | 4 / 1 | -22.2 | 7 | -15.5 | -0.29 | -0.7 |
| 2 | DAL | 43 | +0.115 | +0.022 | +0.093 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.9 | +0.13 | -2.3 |
| 3 | NYJ | 38 | +0.421 | +0.431 | -0.010 | +16.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.30 | +4.0 |
| 4 | MIA | 32 | +0.432 | +0.411 | +0.021 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.32 | +1.6 |
| 5 | BAL | 37 | -0.160 | -0.118 | -0.043 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.07 | -1.5 |
| 6 | NO | 41 | +0.321 | +0.239 | +0.082 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | +0.45 | +6.4 |
| 7 | ATL | 45 | +0.535 | +0.601 | -0.066 | +24.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.32 | +14.7 |
| 8 | CLE | 40 | -0.199 | -0.231 | +0.032 | -8.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.0 | 5 | -12.5 | -0.39 | +2.9 |
| 9 | CAR | 29 | +0.374 | +0.370 | +0.004 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.16 | +12.0 |
| 11 | PIT | 41 | +0.290 | +0.310 | -0.020 | +11.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.26 | -1.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 38 | +0.156 | +0.151 | +0.005 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.32 | -7.2 |
| 13 | KC | 32 | +0.619 | +0.617 | +0.002 | +19.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.64 | +10.6 |
| 14 | CLE | 34 | -0.007 | -0.044 | +0.037 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.02 | -13.7 |
| 15 | TB | 42 | +0.066 | +0.056 | +0.011 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.07 | +5.8 |
| 16 | NE | 54 | +0.245 | +0.172 | +0.072 | +13.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.1 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.14 | +14.4 |
| 18 | BAL | 44 | -0.224 | -0.182 | -0.042 | -9.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.9 | -0.05 | -5.1 |
| 19 | BAL | 37 | +0.122 | +0.157 | -0.035 | +4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.9 | +0.05 | +1.9 |
| 20 | BUF | 36 | +0.408 | +0.333 | +0.075 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.32 | +5.6 |
| 21 | KC | 46 | -0.050 | -0.040 | -0.010 | -2.3 | 2 / 0 | -4.5 | 5 | -7.2 | -0.04 | +8.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.