Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Burrow — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.026
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.015
Dropbacks
388
Turnover EPA
-33.7
WPA
+0.54
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 33 | -0.476 | -0.565 | +0.088 | -15.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -6.0 | -0.33 | -18.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 42 | +0.114 | +0.037 | +0.077 | +4.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.03 | +2.4 |
| 3 | LA | 50 | -0.155 | -0.131 | -0.024 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.11 | -12.6 |
| 4 | TEN | 33 | -0.317 | -0.267 | -0.050 | -10.5 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 3 | -10.0 | -0.12 | +6.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 49 | +0.112 | +0.194 | -0.082 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.45 | +9.7 |
| 6 | SEA | 38 | -0.141 | -0.087 | -0.054 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.13 | -1.4 |
| 8 | SF | 35 | +0.462 | +0.383 | +0.079 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | +0.21 | +17.6 |
| 9 | BUF | 45 | +0.323 | +0.281 | +0.042 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.36 | +6.0 |
| 10 | HOU | 44 | +0.088 | +0.073 | +0.015 | +3.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 4 | -7.7 | +0.13 | +4.3 |
| 11 | BAL | 19 | +0.230 | +0.153 | +0.077 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.07 | -4.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.