Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Burrow — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.184
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.165
Dropbacks
701
Turnover EPA
-71.1
WPA
+4.17
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 32 | -0.167 | -0.130 | -0.037 | -5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.30 | -0.1 |
| 2 | KC | 39 | +0.118 | +0.101 | +0.017 | +4.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.8 | 3 | -8.9 | -0.04 | +4.9 |
| 3 | WAS | 41 | +0.353 | +0.391 | -0.038 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.23 | +9.2 |
| 4 | CAR | 31 | +0.240 | +0.290 | -0.050 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.50 | +3.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 42 | +0.666 | +0.562 | +0.104 | +28.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.62 | +11.8 |
| 6 | NYG | 32 | -0.065 | -0.016 | -0.049 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.0 | +0.11 | +11.1 |
| 7 | CLE | 28 | -0.014 | -0.063 | +0.049 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.8 | -0.08 | -1.1 |
| 8 | PHI | 38 | +0.219 | +0.175 | +0.044 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.20 | +6.1 |
| 9 | LV | 40 | +0.191 | +0.175 | +0.015 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.6 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.33 | +6.0 |
| 10 | BAL | 60 | +0.300 | +0.204 | +0.096 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.7 | +0.42 | +0.7 |
| 11 | LAC | 53 | +0.146 | +0.121 | +0.024 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.16 | -2.5 |
| 13 | PIT | 42 | -0.014 | -0.028 | +0.014 | -0.6 | 1 / 2 | -17.9 | 4 | -16.3 | -0.01 | +9.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 46 | +0.210 | +0.230 | -0.020 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.51 | +8.0 |
| 15 | TEN | 37 | +0.192 | +0.212 | -0.020 | +7.1 | 2 / 1 | -12.6 | 1 | -6.7 | +0.18 | +8.4 |
| 16 | CLE | 34 | +0.143 | +0.090 | +0.053 | +4.9 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 4 | -11.5 | +0.10 | +18.1 |
| 17 | DEN | 56 | +0.357 | +0.333 | +0.024 | +20.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -9.6 | +1.28 | +14.5 |
| 18 | PIT | 50 | -0.014 | -0.029 | +0.014 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.05 | +8.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.