Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Davis Mills — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.160
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.145
Dropbacks
511
Turnover EPA
-83.4
WPA
-1.56
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 40 | -0.176 | -0.162 | -0.014 | -7.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 3 | -8.3 | -0.28 | -6.7 |
| 2 | DEN | 41 | -0.259 | -0.279 | +0.021 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.62 | -13.7 |
| 3 | CHI | 33 | -0.237 | -0.174 | -0.063 | -7.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.42 | -2.3 |
| 4 | LAC | 39 | -0.211 | -0.223 | +0.013 | -8.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 4 | -8.0 | -0.30 | +5.3 |
| 5 | JAX | 25 | -0.164 | -0.101 | -0.063 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.16 | -1.7 |
| 7 | LV | 42 | -0.004 | +0.073 | -0.077 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -10.2 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.37 | -0.0 |
| 8 | TEN | 32 | -0.388 | -0.378 | -0.010 | -12.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.38 | -10.2 |
| 9 | PHI | 25 | -0.244 | -0.286 | +0.042 | -6.1 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.01 | -5.7 |
| 10 | NYG | 41 | +0.124 | +0.127 | -0.003 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.05 | -5.4 |
| 11 | WAS | 38 | -0.508 | -0.490 | -0.017 | -19.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.9 | 5 | -9.9 | -0.47 | -8.4 |
| 14 | DAL | 20 | +0.414 | +0.318 | +0.096 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +17.2 |
| 15 | KC | 24 | +0.092 | +0.104 | -0.012 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -9.8 |
| 16 | TEN | 30 | -0.109 | -0.111 | +0.002 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.06 | +3.9 |
| 17 | JAX | 41 | -0.622 | -0.548 | -0.074 | -25.5 | 0 / 1 | -7.7 | 1 | -7.7 | -0.25 | -8.1 |
| 18 | IND | 40 | +0.175 | +0.182 | -0.007 | +7.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.49 | -1.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.