Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Davis Mills — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.090
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.099
Dropbacks
169
Turnover EPA
-5.5
WPA
-0.39
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BAL | 4 | +0.203 | +0.182 | +0.021 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -5.8 |
| 9 | DEN | 32 | -0.078 | -0.177 | +0.100 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.28 | -13.1 |
| 10 | JAX | 49 | +0.034 | +0.015 | +0.019 | +1.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.00 | -3.3 |
| 11 | TEN | 45 | -0.073 | -0.004 | -0.069 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -11.3 | +0.12 | -0.0 |
| 12 | BUF | 30 | -0.188 | -0.212 | +0.024 | -5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -7.5 |
| 18 | IND | 9 | -0.697 | -0.668 | -0.028 | -6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -35.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.