Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Fields — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.178
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.179
Dropbacks
377
Turnover EPA
-50.2
WPA
-3.09
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 19 | -0.050 | -0.089 | +0.039 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.05 | -16.0 |
| 2 | GB | 14 | -0.451 | -0.459 | +0.008 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.00 | -1.7 |
| 3 | HOU | 22 | -0.375 | -0.351 | -0.023 | -8.2 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 5 | -6.5 | -0.42 | -19.0 |
| 4 | NYG | 28 | -0.209 | -0.203 | -0.006 | -5.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 6 | -9.4 | -0.18 | -7.8 |
| 5 | MIN | 24 | +0.313 | +0.312 | +0.000 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.07 | +2.4 |
| 6 | WAS | 32 | -0.463 | -0.449 | -0.014 | -14.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 5 | -6.9 | -0.82 | -6.1 |
| 7 | NE | 25 | +0.167 | +0.096 | +0.072 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.13 | -1.3 |
| 8 | DAL | 29 | -0.079 | -0.168 | +0.089 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.16 | +10.8 |
| 9 | MIA | 31 | +0.029 | +0.014 | +0.016 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.3 | -0.29 | -3.7 |
| 10 | DET | 23 | -0.264 | -0.163 | -0.101 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.45 | +3.1 |
| 11 | ATL | 25 | -0.018 | +0.059 | -0.077 | -0.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -5.4 | -0.14 | +6.0 |
| 13 | GB | 25 | +0.199 | +0.177 | +0.022 | +5.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | +14.5 |
| 15 | PHI | 27 | -0.091 | -0.139 | +0.048 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -11.6 | -0.20 | -1.3 |
| 16 | BUF | 25 | -0.280 | -0.339 | +0.059 | -7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | -0.12 | +0.2 |
| 17 | DET | 28 | -1.079 | -0.964 | -0.115 | -30.2 | 1 / 1 | -5.8 | 7 | -15.4 | -0.32 | -28.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.