Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Fields — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.109
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.092
Dropbacks
416
Turnover EPA
-50.4
WPA
-0.70
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 42 | -0.297 | -0.284 | -0.013 | -12.5 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 4 | -9.0 | -0.11 | -7.8 |
| 2 | TB | 35 | -0.279 | -0.246 | -0.033 | -9.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 6 | -6.9 | -0.16 | -10.5 |
| 3 | KC | 25 | -0.482 | -0.530 | +0.048 | -12.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -5.8 | -0.14 | +0.2 |
| 4 | DEN | 39 | +0.167 | +0.183 | -0.016 | +6.5 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 4 | -13.1 | -0.23 | +21.1 |
| 5 | WAS | 32 | +0.303 | +0.360 | -0.057 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.0 | +0.26 | +1.9 |
| 6 | MIN | 14 | -0.649 | -0.615 | -0.035 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.25 | -11.3 |
| 11 | DET | 25 | +0.115 | +0.168 | -0.053 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.06 | +6.2 |
| 12 | MIN | 40 | -0.161 | -0.140 | -0.021 | -6.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 3 | -8.5 | +0.02 | +7.1 |
| 14 | DET | 37 | -0.001 | +0.054 | -0.055 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.20 | -3.4 |
| 15 | CLE | 43 | -0.265 | -0.360 | +0.095 | -11.4 | 2 / 0 | -1.2 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.53 | -7.5 |
| 16 | ARI | 28 | -0.217 | -0.129 | -0.087 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.01 | +2.1 |
| 17 | ATL | 35 | +0.121 | +0.153 | -0.032 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.23 | +4.6 |
| 18 | GB | 21 | -0.071 | -0.062 | -0.009 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.8 | -0.04 | +2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.