Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Justin Fields — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.034
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.040
Dropbacks
178
Turnover EPA
-11.2
WPA
+0.17
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 25 | -0.086 | -0.054 | -0.032 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.01 | +4.9 |
| 2 | DEN | 22 | +0.117 | +0.100 | +0.017 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.11 | +7.4 |
| 3 | LAC | 34 | +0.267 | +0.241 | +0.026 | +9.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.33 | +10.2 |
| 4 | IND | 37 | +0.062 | +0.094 | -0.032 | +2.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 4 | -8.6 | -0.03 | +1.2 |
| 5 | DAL | 30 | -0.143 | -0.116 | -0.027 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.03 | -1.9 |
| 6 | LV | 28 | -0.001 | -0.015 | +0.014 | -0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.12 | -6.7 |
| 12 | CLE | 1 | -1.064 | -1.120 | +0.056 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.08 | -32.9 |
| 19 | BAL | 1 | -0.375 | -0.470 | +0.095 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -52.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.