Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Lawrence — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.110
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.093
Dropbacks
636
Turnover EPA
-92.9
WPA
-1.77
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 52 | -0.173 | -0.074 | -0.099 | -9.0 | 3 / 0 | -14.6 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.11 | -12.0 |
| 2 | DEN | 35 | -0.405 | -0.405 | -0.000 | -14.2 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.40 | -18.2 |
| 3 | ARI | 36 | -0.348 | -0.361 | +0.013 | -12.5 | 2 / 2 | -18.2 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.32 | +2.8 |
| 4 | CIN | 25 | +0.247 | +0.256 | -0.009 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.19 | +11.0 |
| 5 | TEN | 36 | -0.063 | -0.044 | -0.019 | -2.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.13 | +5.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 43 | +0.282 | +0.218 | +0.064 | +12.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -5.7 | +0.33 | -5.4 |
| 8 | SEA | 55 | -0.168 | -0.140 | -0.028 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.15 | -6.4 |
| 9 | BUF | 28 | -0.069 | -0.140 | +0.071 | -1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.16 | -7.2 |
| 10 | IND | 39 | -0.163 | -0.168 | +0.006 | -6.3 | 0 / 1 | -2.7 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.36 | -18.3 |
| 11 | SF | 28 | +0.081 | +0.065 | +0.016 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.10 | -0.8 |
| 12 | ATL | 44 | -0.122 | -0.046 | -0.076 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.11 | -5.5 |
| 13 | LA | 30 | +0.001 | -0.097 | +0.098 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.10 | -19.7 |
| 14 | TEN | 43 | -0.406 | -0.378 | -0.028 | -17.5 | 4 / 0 | -14.2 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.19 | -1.8 |
| 15 | HOU | 40 | -0.227 | -0.127 | -0.100 | -9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.25 | -7.8 |
| 16 | NYJ | 40 | -0.009 | +0.103 | -0.111 | -0.4 | 0 / 1 | -7.6 | 1 | -7.6 | -0.10 | +11.1 |
| 17 | NE | 29 | -0.385 | -0.416 | +0.031 | -11.2 | 3 / 0 | -15.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.15 | -4.3 |
| 18 | IND | 33 | +0.261 | +0.246 | +0.015 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.33 | +4.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.