Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Lawrence — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.108
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.111
Dropbacks
704
Turnover EPA
-71.4
WPA
+1.65
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 45 | -0.027 | -0.018 | -0.008 | -1.2 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.14 | +2.7 |
| 2 | IND | 30 | +0.589 | +0.585 | +0.004 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +14.3 |
| 3 | LAC | 40 | +0.395 | +0.368 | +0.027 | +15.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +2.2 |
| 4 | PHI | 27 | -0.289 | -0.329 | +0.040 | -7.8 | 1 / 3 | -17.9 | 4 | -13.4 | -0.26 | -20.7 |
| 5 | HOU | 46 | -0.192 | -0.169 | -0.023 | -8.8 | 2 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.34 | -10.7 |
| 6 | IND | 27 | +0.013 | +0.023 | -0.010 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.7 | +0.04 | +15.3 |
| 7 | NYG | 43 | +0.263 | +0.264 | -0.001 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | -9.9 |
| 8 | DEN | 33 | -0.405 | -0.423 | +0.017 | -13.4 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.44 | -8.5 |
| 9 | LV | 30 | +0.382 | +0.448 | -0.066 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +17.9 |
| 10 | KC | 45 | +0.150 | +0.156 | -0.006 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.9 | +0.01 | +6.5 |
| 12 | BAL | 42 | +0.324 | +0.354 | -0.030 | +13.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.80 | +11.6 |
| 13 | DET | 34 | -0.137 | -0.036 | -0.100 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.03 | -10.1 |
| 14 | TEN | 43 | +0.432 | +0.422 | +0.009 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +4.5 |
| 15 | DAL | 43 | +0.341 | +0.248 | +0.093 | +14.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.33 | +2.4 |
| 16 | NYJ | 32 | +0.045 | +0.062 | -0.017 | +1.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | +0.22 | -2.5 |
| 17 | HOU | 22 | +0.045 | +0.069 | -0.025 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.03 | +11.6 |
| 18 | TEN | 33 | +0.134 | +0.132 | +0.003 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.18 | +3.8 |
| 19 | LAC | 49 | -0.107 | -0.122 | +0.015 | -5.2 | 4 / 0 | -16.5 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.20 | -6.8 |
| 20 | KC | 40 | -0.000 | +0.008 | -0.008 | -0.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.15 | -2.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.