Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Lawrence — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.019
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.000
Dropbacks
602
Turnover EPA
-89.7
WPA
+0.53
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 34 | -0.282 | -0.265 | -0.018 | -9.6 | 1 / 1 | -16.2 | 2 | -10.3 | -0.12 | +5.2 |
| 2 | KC | 45 | -0.228 | -0.281 | +0.053 | -10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | -0.40 | -12.7 |
| 3 | HOU | 40 | +0.070 | +0.055 | +0.015 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +1.5 |
| 4 | ATL | 32 | +0.104 | +0.138 | -0.033 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.12 | +6.1 |
| 5 | BUF | 42 | +0.238 | +0.199 | +0.039 | +10.0 | 0 / 2 | -7.5 | 5 | -11.6 | +0.34 | +2.1 |
| 6 | IND | 33 | -0.125 | -0.111 | -0.013 | -4.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.01 | +6.4 |
| 7 | NO | 29 | +0.221 | +0.158 | +0.063 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -3.8 |
| 8 | PIT | 35 | +0.199 | +0.204 | -0.005 | +7.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -5.6 | +0.05 | +6.6 |
| 10 | SF | 34 | -0.452 | -0.510 | +0.058 | -15.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.6 | 5 | -12.0 | -0.25 | -6.8 |
| 11 | TEN | 33 | +0.471 | +0.500 | -0.029 | +15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.16 | +15.6 |
| 12 | HOU | 39 | +0.342 | +0.320 | +0.022 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | -4.5 |
| 13 | CIN | 31 | +0.330 | +0.338 | -0.008 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.30 | +14.8 |
| 14 | CLE | 55 | -0.033 | -0.132 | +0.099 | -1.8 | 3 / 0 | -8.7 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.34 | -2.8 |
| 15 | BAL | 44 | -0.206 | -0.276 | +0.070 | -9.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 1 | -4.6 | +0.04 | -4.5 |
| 16 | TB | 33 | -0.206 | -0.177 | -0.029 | -6.8 | 2 / 1 | -12.8 | 3 | -7.9 | -0.04 | -4.8 |
| 18 | TEN | 43 | -0.003 | +0.038 | -0.042 | -0.1 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +3.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.