Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Lawrence — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.032
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.020
Dropbacks
305
Turnover EPA
-29.5
WPA
-0.49
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 24 | +0.080 | +0.071 | +0.009 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.07 | -0.2 |
| 2 | CLE | 33 | -0.133 | -0.182 | +0.049 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.40 | -9.2 |
| 3 | BUF | 42 | -0.410 | -0.383 | -0.027 | -17.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 4 | -8.0 | -0.14 | -5.6 |
| 4 | HOU | 34 | -0.005 | -0.041 | +0.036 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.19 | -7.8 |
| 5 | IND | 34 | +0.469 | +0.493 | -0.024 | +15.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | +11.4 |
| 6 | CHI | 39 | +0.221 | +0.218 | +0.004 | +8.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.04 | +6.4 |
| 7 | NE | 21 | +0.514 | +0.533 | -0.019 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.33 | +4.6 |
| 8 | GB | 33 | +0.195 | +0.163 | +0.033 | +6.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 1 | -5.1 | +0.20 | +6.6 |
| 9 | PHI | 35 | -0.217 | -0.251 | +0.035 | -7.6 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 2 | -4.7 | -0.54 | -9.4 |
| 13 | HOU | 10 | -0.463 | -0.504 | +0.041 | -4.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.18 | -17.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.