Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Lawrence — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.062
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.062
Dropbacks
631
Turnover EPA
-72.5
WPA
+0.90
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 30 | -0.034 | +0.049 | -0.082 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -4.1 |
| 2 | CIN | 43 | +0.055 | +0.116 | -0.062 | +2.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.5 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.22 | -5.0 |
| 3 | HOU | 42 | -0.120 | -0.227 | +0.107 | -5.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.24 | -17.0 |
| 4 | SF | 31 | +0.135 | +0.173 | -0.037 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.23 | +0.9 |
| 5 | KC | 28 | -0.011 | -0.027 | +0.016 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -1.6 | +0.14 | +8.1 |
| 6 | SEA | 49 | +0.065 | -0.008 | +0.073 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -10.1 | -0.21 | -2.1 |
| 7 | LA | 55 | -0.252 | -0.253 | +0.001 | -13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -9.0 | -0.26 | -12.5 |
| 9 | LV | 34 | -0.063 | -0.027 | -0.037 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.3 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.21 | -0.0 |
| 10 | HOU | 29 | -0.146 | -0.251 | +0.106 | -4.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.1 | 5 | -12.7 | -0.44 | -14.4 |
| 11 | LAC | 22 | +0.184 | +0.109 | +0.075 | +4.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -1.6 |
| 12 | ARI | 33 | -0.352 | -0.273 | -0.079 | -11.6 | 3 / 1 | -21.2 | 3 | -7.8 | +0.00 | -3.0 |
| 13 | TEN | 30 | +0.097 | +0.162 | -0.065 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.29 | +4.2 |
| 14 | IND | 30 | +0.363 | +0.382 | -0.018 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.1 |
| 15 | NYJ | 32 | +0.650 | +0.743 | -0.092 | +20.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +12.2 |
| 16 | DEN | 41 | +0.331 | +0.224 | +0.107 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.3 | +0.37 | +5.5 |
| 17 | IND | 39 | +0.142 | +0.164 | -0.022 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.09 | -0.2 |
| 18 | TEN | 32 | +0.260 | +0.318 | -0.058 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.13 | +11.8 |
| 19 | BUF | 31 | +0.052 | +0.024 | +0.028 | +1.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.15 | -5.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.