Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mac Jones — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.067
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.062
Dropbacks
478
Turnover EPA
-50.2
WPA
-0.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 32 | -0.135 | -0.140 | +0.005 | -4.3 | 1 / 1 | -12.7 | 2 | -8.2 | -0.19 | +2.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 35 | +0.124 | +0.148 | -0.024 | +4.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -5.1 |
| 3 | BAL | 36 | -0.039 | -0.002 | -0.037 | -1.4 | 3 / 0 | -10.4 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.10 | +6.4 |
| 7 | CHI | 6 | -1.001 | -0.937 | -0.064 | -6.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -17.2 |
| 8 | NYJ | 41 | -0.194 | -0.172 | -0.022 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 6 | -9.8 | +0.04 | +2.2 |
| 9 | IND | 34 | -0.263 | -0.246 | -0.017 | -8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.30 | -0.7 |
| 11 | NYJ | 33 | -0.061 | -0.039 | -0.022 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -9.5 | -0.11 | +9.8 |
| 12 | MIN | 41 | +0.142 | +0.148 | -0.006 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.24 | +10.9 |
| 13 | BUF | 37 | +0.088 | +0.021 | +0.067 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.03 | -5.1 |
| 14 | ARI | 36 | -0.078 | -0.062 | -0.016 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.05 | -2.6 |
| 15 | LV | 32 | -0.378 | -0.294 | -0.084 | -12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.30 | -23.7 |
| 16 | CIN | 37 | +0.061 | +0.043 | +0.018 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.3 | +0.10 | +4.0 |
| 17 | MIA | 36 | -0.081 | -0.089 | +0.007 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -7.9 | -0.04 | -2.4 |
| 18 | BUF | 42 | +0.024 | -0.041 | +0.065 | +1.0 | 3 / 0 | -12.9 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.13 | +0.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.