Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mac Jones — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.005
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.012
Dropbacks
279
Turnover EPA
-23.6
WPA
-0.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BUF | 9 | -1.144 | -1.117 | -0.027 | -10.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | +0.00 | -13.5 |
| 6 | CHI | 2 | -0.750 | -0.754 | +0.004 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.00 | +24.1 |
| 10 | MIN | 25 | -0.323 | -0.360 | +0.037 | -8.1 | 2 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.53 | -1.0 |
| 11 | DET | 30 | -0.404 | -0.396 | -0.009 | -12.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -4.0 | -0.00 | -3.8 |
| 13 | HOU | 34 | +0.461 | +0.420 | +0.041 | +15.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | -1.8 |
| 14 | TEN | 32 | +0.145 | +0.167 | -0.022 | +4.6 | 2 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.23 | +7.8 |
| 15 | NYJ | 49 | +0.132 | +0.093 | +0.038 | +6.4 | 2 / 0 | -2.2 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.26 | +1.8 |
| 16 | LV | 40 | -0.127 | -0.134 | +0.007 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.14 | -3.6 |
| 17 | TEN | 24 | +0.301 | +0.317 | -0.016 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.24 | +2.1 |
| 18 | IND | 34 | +0.047 | +0.080 | -0.034 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.28 | -2.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.