Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Mac Jones — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.140
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.137
Dropbacks
308
Turnover EPA
-32.4
WPA
+1.46
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NO | 41 | +0.097 | +0.070 | +0.027 | +4.0 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 3 | -8.7 | +0.21 | -3.6 |
| 3 | ARI | 41 | -0.035 | +0.039 | -0.073 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.35 | +3.3 |
| 5 | LA | 49 | +0.300 | +0.286 | +0.014 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.68 | -0.9 |
| 6 | TB | 45 | -0.143 | -0.098 | -0.045 | -6.4 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 6 | -9.9 | -0.09 | +7.2 |
| 7 | ATL | 27 | +0.075 | +0.073 | +0.002 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.09 | +1.2 |
| 8 | HOU | 35 | +0.031 | -0.080 | +0.111 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.02 | -2.3 |
| 9 | NYG | 26 | +0.480 | +0.519 | -0.039 | +12.5 | 0 / 1 | -2.2 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.17 | +12.0 |
| 10 | LA | 40 | +0.475 | +0.456 | +0.018 | +19.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +15.0 |
| 20 | SEA | 4 | -0.595 | -0.660 | +0.065 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -18.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.