Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trey Lance — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.590
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.651
Dropbacks
59
Turnover EPA
-12.7
WPA
-0.46
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | WAS | 4 | -0.390 | -0.303 | -0.087 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.00 | +23.1 |
| 11 | JAX | 9 | -0.827 | -0.828 | +0.001 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.2 | +0.00 | -20.5 |
| 13 | LV | 1 | +0.873 | +0.902 | -0.028 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +24.0 |
| 18 | DEN | 45 | -0.593 | -0.681 | +0.088 | -26.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.7 | 4 | -10.2 | -0.47 | -11.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.