Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Zach Wilson — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.243
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.246
Dropbacks
413
Turnover EPA
-57.5
WPA
-2.60
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 23 | -0.108 | -0.139 | +0.031 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.05 | +6.4 |
| 2 | DAL | 29 | -0.616 | -0.634 | +0.018 | -17.9 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.03 | -18.8 |
| 3 | NE | 38 | -0.377 | -0.401 | +0.024 | -14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.82 | -5.8 |
| 4 | KC | 41 | +0.149 | +0.088 | +0.061 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.18 | +8.0 |
| 5 | DEN | 30 | -0.266 | -0.239 | -0.027 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.25 | +7.2 |
| 6 | PHI | 39 | -0.230 | -0.226 | -0.004 | -9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.38 | -9.0 |
| 8 | NYG | 39 | -0.387 | -0.376 | -0.011 | -15.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 4 | -12.8 | -0.30 | -16.8 |
| 9 | LAC | 57 | -0.357 | -0.336 | -0.022 | -20.4 | 0 / 2 | -13.5 | 8 | -23.3 | -0.34 | +0.4 |
| 10 | LV | 41 | -0.130 | -0.101 | -0.030 | -5.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.42 | -6.9 |
| 11 | BUF | 21 | -0.381 | -0.408 | +0.026 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.19 | -17.7 |
| 14 | HOU | 40 | +0.212 | +0.196 | +0.016 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.6 | +0.28 | +10.2 |
| 15 | MIA | 15 | -0.963 | -0.924 | -0.040 | -14.5 | 0 / 1 | -7.1 | 4 | -11.5 | -0.29 | -10.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.