Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Skylar Thompson — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.248
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.263
Dropbacks
161
Turnover EPA
-23.3
WPA
-1.13
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NYJ | 35 | -0.498 | -0.465 | -0.033 | -17.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.4 | 2 | -8.1 | -0.41 | -3.2 |
| 6 | MIN | 14 | -0.179 | -0.171 | -0.008 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| 10 | CLE | 1 | +0.967 | +0.916 | +0.051 | +1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +22.3 |
| 12 | HOU | 6 | -0.560 | -0.541 | -0.018 | -3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.01 | -41.4 |
| 13 | SF | 1 | -2.996 | -3.024 | +0.028 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -57.3 |
| 17 | NE | 22 | -0.006 | -0.073 | +0.067 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.18 | -10.0 |
| 18 | NYJ | 32 | -0.248 | -0.221 | -0.026 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.17 | +7.6 |
| 19 | BUF | 50 | -0.131 | -0.193 | +0.062 | -6.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.0 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.31 | -17.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.