Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Brock Purdy — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.281
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.283
Dropbacks
580
Turnover EPA
-68.7
WPA
+3.44
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 32 | +0.200 | +0.204 | -0.004 | +6.4 | 0 / 1 | -7.0 | 3 | -10.2 | +0.25 | +3.1 |
| 2 | LA | 26 | +0.108 | +0.125 | -0.018 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +1.7 |
| 3 | NYG | 39 | +0.430 | +0.422 | +0.008 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.34 | +2.9 |
| 4 | ARI | 22 | +0.977 | +1.038 | -0.061 | +21.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.34 | +27.2 |
| 5 | DAL | 25 | +0.789 | +0.742 | +0.047 | +19.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.27 | +5.8 |
| 6 | CLE | 29 | -0.271 | -0.365 | +0.094 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.27 | -14.0 |
| 7 | MIN | 30 | +0.274 | +0.282 | -0.008 | +8.2 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.01 | +1.5 |
| 8 | CIN | 33 | -0.100 | -0.086 | -0.013 | -3.3 | 2 / 1 | -16.3 | 2 | -5.9 | -0.16 | +7.7 |
| 10 | JAX | 28 | +0.616 | +0.611 | +0.005 | +17.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.18 | +9.0 |
| 11 | TB | 29 | +0.533 | +0.547 | -0.014 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | +0.34 | +16.4 |
| 12 | SEA | 31 | -0.028 | +0.024 | -0.052 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.09 | +8.1 |
| 13 | PHI | 29 | +0.790 | +0.770 | +0.020 | +22.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.42 | +6.4 |
| 14 | SEA | 30 | +0.384 | +0.425 | -0.041 | +11.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -4.0 | +0.22 | +6.3 |
| 15 | ARI | 24 | +0.689 | +0.760 | -0.070 | +16.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.41 | +7.1 |
| 16 | BAL | 34 | -0.464 | -0.531 | +0.067 | -15.8 | 4 / 0 | -22.5 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.49 | -10.0 |
| 17 | WAS | 28 | +0.388 | +0.445 | -0.057 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +13.2 |
| 20 | GB | 39 | +0.178 | +0.184 | -0.006 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.38 | -4.8 |
| 21 | DET | 33 | +0.148 | +0.201 | -0.053 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.01 | +2.5 |
| 22 | KC | 39 | +0.223 | +0.159 | +0.064 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.67 | -3.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.