Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Brock Purdy — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.173
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.157
Dropbacks
359
Turnover EPA
-74.0
WPA
+2.24
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 36 | +0.452 | +0.370 | +0.081 | +16.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.75 | +15.3 |
| 4 | JAX | 40 | +0.104 | +0.084 | +0.020 | +4.2 | 2 / 1 | -12.8 | 1 | -4.4 | -0.16 | -8.3 |
| 11 | ARI | 28 | +0.242 | +0.309 | -0.067 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.17 | +10.1 |
| 12 | CAR | 32 | -0.185 | -0.099 | -0.086 | -5.9 | 3 / 0 | -13.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.16 | +1.5 |
| 13 | CLE | 31 | +0.174 | +0.110 | +0.064 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.23 | +9.5 |
| 15 | TEN | 32 | +0.502 | +0.558 | -0.055 | +16.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.1 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.38 | +20.5 |
| 16 | IND | 35 | +0.573 | +0.587 | -0.014 | +20.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.50 | +12.4 |
| 17 | CHI | 34 | +0.381 | +0.374 | +0.007 | +13.0 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.68 | +5.0 |
| 18 | SEA | 30 | -0.388 | -0.452 | +0.064 | -11.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.29 | +3.2 |
| 19 | PHI | 32 | +0.239 | +0.148 | +0.091 | +7.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 1 | -0.3 | +0.18 | -2.9 |
| 20 | SEA | 29 | -0.332 | -0.397 | +0.065 | -9.6 | 1 / 1 | -9.9 | 2 | -8.6 | -0.05 | -2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.