Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Brock Purdy — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.297
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.291
Dropbacks
217
Turnover EPA
-19.3
WPA
+1.67
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 34 | +0.172 | +0.142 | +0.030 | +5.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +0.8 |
| 2 | MIA | 22 | +0.974 | +1.060 | -0.087 | +21.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +29.0 |
| 3 | ARI | 27 | +0.770 | +0.849 | -0.079 | +20.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.49 | -4.9 |
| 4 | DEN | 29 | +0.383 | +0.279 | +0.103 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -0.4 |
| 5 | SEA | 33 | +0.040 | -0.061 | +0.101 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 3 | -5.6 | +0.06 | +5.4 |
| 6 | WAS | 31 | +0.027 | +0.118 | -0.092 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.06 | +7.2 |
| 7 | ATL | 41 | +0.078 | +0.056 | +0.022 | +3.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.10 | +0.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.